UFC 98: Evans-Machida
Published by Charles Jay on May 16th, 2009 in Current Events

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Mixed martial arts fighters who reach the main event level with an undefeated record are unusual, especially in the UFC, where they have not been known to protect fighters all that much. One assumes that if a guy has gone through his entire career unbeaten, there must be some lack of quality on his roster of opponents.

But that is not really the case in Saturday night’s UFC light heavyweight title bout between champion Rashard Evans and challenger Lyoto Machida. These guys are the real thing, and it is quite possible that “the next big thing” in mixed martial arts will come out of this fight.

At BetUS.com (http://www.betus.com/ats/12911/mid/3200/promo/ufc), Machida is listed as the -225 favorite, while Evans is posted at +175.

Lyoto Machida hardly comes into this fight lacking experience; indeed, he has seen a number of styles and fought competitors of different weight classes, to be sure. You certainly cannot say that a guy who’s been in the ring and/or cage with the likes of B.J. Penn, Rich Franklin and Tito Ortiz is lacking in quality of opposition. Penn gave him quite a time for a while in their bout, but the edge in quickness was not unexpected from one who was so much smaller. To knock out Franklin in his third pro bout, as Machida did, was precocious to say the least.

The thing about Machida is that even though he is someone who is trained in a wide variety of disciplines, and can stand up and throw as well execute some ground moves, he sometimes gives off the impression that he is trying to run out the clock. Machida has gained a reputation as a safety-first fighter, who hesitates in taking a chance unless he absolutely has to. This can have a tendency to really try the other fighter’s patience, and that is going to be a test for Evans, who is aggressive and though not a babe in the woods, not the most grizzled veteran either.

Evans’ rise to the top of the UFC world has been a surprise to some, even though he did emerge victorious in The Ultimate Fighter 2. While he wasn’t necessarily expected to be cannon fodder for Tito Ortiz, he was nonetheless considered a possible stepping stone, and he raised a lot of eyebrows when he battled Ortiz to a draw. Chuck Liddell tried to use him as another rung in the ladder back up to the top, but Evans ended those hopes in short order.

When Evans landed that right hands to knock Liddell out, I was watching the fight with some friends at a bar. As soon as that punch landed, I immediately remarked to them that it reminded me a great deal of the decisive punch Thomas Hearns landed on Roberto Duran’s chin to put Duran down on his face and out like a light. It was a blast that could be heard up in the rafters at the Caesars Palace outdoor stadium; a “shot ‘heard round the world” to a certain degree, and Evans’ crushing blow had the same effect. Then he made a come-from-behind effort to beat Forrest Griffin, seemingly becoming better and more resilient as he moved up level of competition, which is the sign of a very good fighter.

Is he a great fighter? Not to sound melodramatic about it, but I truly believe that might be answered on Saturday, because this competitor who is so explosive will have to exhibit something he may not have had to pull out of his arsenal yet – extreme patience. It is imperative that Evans, in the process of trying to land that big punch or scoring that big takedown – which are likely to be his two alternate modes of attack – he doesn’t make a key mistake, because as passive as Machida might seem at times, when he sees the opening he can be like a cobra.

Honestly, if Evans is patient enough to accept pounding out a decision, I think he can get one, although he’s going to have to maintain himself. He is a very exciting fighter, as we’ve seen, when the other guy is also taking initiative, but when an opponent is not as willing those over-aggressive types tend to get more discouraged with each unsuccessful salvo.

I’ll use a boxing analogy here, as I often do. You’ve got Evans as sort of the George Foreman in this matchup, while Machida might be the Jimmy Young. Guess who won that fight, way back when?

THE PICK: MACHIDA -225