The Definitive UFC 100 Preview Article
Published by Jim Genia on July 9th, 2009 in Current Events

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Unless you call a Forward Observation Base in Sadr City home or you’ve been confined to the deepest jungles of the Amazon with the Peace Corps, odds are you’ve been made aware by Zuffa’s marketing machine that this Saturday’s UFC – UFC 100 – is a big deal. And looking at the card, which features not one but three match-ups worthy of marquee status, it’s hard to argue that this installment isn’t your average pay-per-view offering. Heavyweight champ Brock Lesnar and interim champ Frank Mir are set to rematch to unify the belts, Georges St. Pierre will face his toughest test to date when he defends his welterweight crown against the fearsome Thiago Alves, and TUF 9 coaches Michael Bisping and Dan Henderson will finally do their dance. Add to that a pair of bouts where Jon Fitch and Japanese judo stud Yoshihiro Akiyama get to cream less-than-worthy competition for the sake of thrills, cheers and possible highlight-reel footage, and you have something that on paper definitely merits the fanfare. But how will it all play out?

Lesnar earned his berth into the UFC with one MMA bout to his name. He earned his shot at Randy Couture’s belt with just one win in the Octagon (over a faded Heath Herring, which came after a submission loss to Mir in his UFC debut). Did he defeat Couture convincingly? Yes, but employing freak genetics – genetics that call in to question whether he is homo sapien or homo superior – to stun “The Natural” with punches is a far cry from Lesnar working his way up the ladder, knocking off opponents and honing his technique before our very eyes. The man is champ by virtue of simply being built like a cartoon character. That’s it.

Mir, on the other hand, earned his status courtesy of a lengthy career snagging submissions and throwing leather, and along the way has TKO’d Pride legend Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, snapped Tim Sylvia’s arm, and twisted Lesnar’s knee to its breaking point at UFC 81 (UFC 81 was presciently and fittingly called “Breaking Point”). For the sake of cross-trained mixed martial artists everywhere who strive to learn all aspects of the game, and for the sake of fighters who take the time to pay their dues, Mir must win at his UFC 100 rematch with Lesnar. And he will. Unless the behemoth catches him like Couture was caught, there’s just no substitute for 13 trips into the Octagon, which Lesnar falls short of by ten. Expect interim champ Mir to once again become a full-fledged UFC champ via submission, and his mantelpiece to be graced with a shiny belt and a Minnesotan’s oversized leg.

That St. Pierre is a dominant champ goes without saying. He’s convincingly crushed the best welterweights in the game, including Matt Hughes, BJ Penn, Jon Fitch, Sean Sherk and Josh Koscheck, and given the opportunity, the Canadian capable of out-wrestling wrestlers and out-striking strikers would move up in weight to dish out some pain to middleweight deity Anderson Silva. But at UFC 100 St. Pierre is set to meet American Top Team star and devastating Muay Thai specialist Alves, whose current seven-fight win streak has involved a lot (no, really, a lot) of punishment visited upon opponents in the form of kicks, punches and absolutely killer knees. It should go without saying that Alves has the tools to separate St. Pierre from both his consciousness and his belt – but let’s say it anyway. Unless St. Pierre manages to do what Hughes, Koscheck, Karo Parisyan and Tony DeSouza could not, which is take Alves down and keep him there, the ATT representative is going to rearrange the Canadian’s face and emerge the victor.

TUF 3 winner Bisping and Pride champ Henderson will meet in a pairing as hot as a polar bear’s refrigerator and as eagerly anticipated as an IRS audit, the culmination of a dozen TUF 9 episodes on SpikeTV that saw the two men act as coaches of opposing teams and generate zero heat toward each other. Other than the fact that Bisping and Henderson are both skilled and accomplished fighters, is anyone actually compelled to watch this bout based on what they saw on “The Ultimate Fighter”? Probably not. But that aside, the Brit and the wrestler can bang something fierce, which they’re pretty much guaranteed to do once the Octagon door shuts. Look for the Team Quest honcho’s experience to play a factor, and look for Bisping’s comparative youth (he’s 30 to Henderson’s 38) to enter into the equation as well. Ultimately, the American should earn the split decision after a back-and-forth war.

Paulo Thiago looked severely outclassed against Koscheck in his Octagon debut at UFC 95, and if not for an out-of-nowhere punch that sent Koscheck to bed without supper, the Brazilian expat would be relegated to the prelims now (if not cut from the UFC entirely). But he won, so as a “reward” he gets to face the far superior American Kickboxing Academy welterweight rep Fitch on the UFC 100 main card, which for fans of “jiu-jitsu specialists getting beaten on by well-rounded mixed martial artists” is a boon. Because, really, what we’re going to see in the Thiago/Fitch bout is a jiu-jitsu specialist getting beaten on by a well-rounded mixed martial artist. Badly. Until the referee steps in. Fitch by TKO in this one.

Whatever schemes Zuffa may have in place, whatever overseas aspirations they may harbor, it all somehow involves the signing of Japanese judo stud Akiyama, and American fans will get their first glimpse of this middleweight in action when he takes on a tough (but not too tough) Alan Belcher. Can Akiyama submit opponents? You betcha. Can he knock them out? You betcha. Can Belcher do the same? Sure, but not against top-level guys, and Akiyama is a top-level guy. Expect Belcher to wind up a crumpled and bloody mess trembling against the cage by bout’s end.

As undercard’s go, UFC 100’s is stacked, with TUF 6 winner Mac Danzig taking on New Jersey grappling ace Jim Miller, TUF 1 runner-up Stephan Bonnar facing ground-and-pound pioneer Mark Coleman, and up-and-coming Greco-Roman specialist Jon Jones against wrestler Jake O’Brien. But when Zuffa examines their pay-per-view breakdowns at the end of the quarter, they’ll be confronted with the obvious: their UFC 100 grand affair was driven by Lesnar and Mir’s rematch and St. Pierre’s clash with Alves. And more people will have tuned in than ever before.

For fans, the pay-per-view price tag will have been worth it.