Randy Couture says GSP and Lesnar will win at UFC 100
Published by Zach Arnold on July 10th, 2009 in Current Events

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Randy Couture has a knack of predicting winners when it comes to fights. If his track record is accurate as it usually is, expect the favorites to win at UFC 100.

When it comes to the Georges St. Pierre vs. Thiago Alves fight for the Welterweight title, Couture doesn’t underestimate Alves’ skill set but thinks that St. Pierre is too well-rounded to lose.

“No, I don’t think you are, I think [Alves is] very explosive, very strong,” Couture recently told ESPN Las Vegas radio host Steve Cofield. “He brings a great Thai background into this fight and he manages to get guys there and trap them and tie up with them and land those powerful blows. He doesn’t look like a 170 pounder walking in a lot of times but Georges is so dynamic. He’s long, he uses angles and footwork very well and like you said he has a lot of different ways that he can win and take this fight to a lot of different places where as I see Alves only really having that one option, if he can clinch, clinch with him and tie him up and get in a close fight game with him, he has a chance to catch him and be successful but I just don’t see that happening.”

What does Randy see as the key to GSP’s success when it comes to preparing for fights?

“I think he will definitely be smart about this, there’s no ego wtih Georges, he’s a very humble guy, he’s going to go in and do whatever he needs to do to put himself in the best position to win this fight.”

While St. Pierre remains confident and yet complimentary about his opponent, one fighter who is not sending his opponents flowers any time soon is Frank Mir. Having listened to two week’s worth of Frank Mir interviews, you almost have to convince yourself that Lesnar actually deserves to be the UFC champion — it’s that harsh in tone, which is of course why UFC 100 is going to be such a highly-watched event with a main event of two guys who the public has a strong emotionally reaction for one way or the other.

Frank Mir should actually thank Brock Lesnar. If it wasn’t for MIr getting the submission win over him last year, we wouldn’t be taking Mir as seriously as we are now. It was that win that helped catapult Mir into a fight against Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira where Mir was able to out-box the former PRIDE ace and elevate himself up to a UFC Heavyweight title match against Lesnar.

Ken Hahn, who trains Frank Mir at the Striking Unlimited gym in Las Vegas, told RawVegas.tv in an interview that the journey of Frank Mir to headline UFC 100 has seen a lot of ups and down, and we’re not just talking about Mir’s physical shape or weight, either.

“It’s been a long journey and had to re-establish his whole work ethic you know and his training, but I think you’re going to see a totally different Frank now, he’s probably going to be the biggest he’s ever been in the best shape, everybody else questions his cardio but he’ll be there.”

And as for the critics of Mir who have bashed him in the past for not being in shape come fight time?

“It’s true, I mean, there’s always gotta to be a little bit of truth to it, but you know like I said we’re re-establishing his training. He’s doing nothing but training now and basically the biggest thing was switching from being a fighter or a martial artist. If you’re a fighter, then you just train whenever your fight comes up, but a martial artist trains day in and day out regardless if he has a fight or not so he’s in better shape now because of that mentality. The most difficult part is just you know getting him to train like a champion, you know, a lot of times in the beginning it was mostly his how can I say he just had a gift you know so everything came natural and talent and now that he’s 30 there’s no more talent, he’s got to put the effort in and so now you’re going to see a totally different Frank more muscular more athletic better conditioned because he’s actually training like a champion should be instead of just you know fight for fight with just, ‘OH, I’ll train 8 weeks and be able to win.’ ”

Listening to Hahn speak, one gets the sense of a quiet confidence whereas Mir is trash-talking like the best pro-wrestling heel in the business. He makes people want to either love or hate him, which is why he makes for great TV when doing color commentary on WEC telecasts.

Couture isn’t sure what to make of Mir’s trash-talking of Brock Lesnar.

“Well, it’s hard to say what’s going on in Frank’s head or his heart, I mean that’s the key. Obviously he’s coming off a great performance with Nogueira, he’s got a lot of confidence right now, I hope he’s done the work to back that up and on the outside chance that he doesn’t go out and make something happen early and catch Lesnar again, he’s going to have to grind it out and be smart and perservere in a tough fight against a big guy so that’s the question.”

Hahn told RawVegas.tv that the game plan for the Lesnar fight is to stretch it out as much as possible and eventually win in the later rounds.

“I think for Frank it’s more about getting a place to showcase his ability so since always people are questioning well, you know, when Brock had him early with the punches [in the first fight] that they should have stopped the fight then you know and I already addressed him, ‘In a street fight, yeah you would have lost’ you know because basically you didn’t have an answer for it. This time, he’s going to take it all the way out and get as much experience, even with Nogueira it was cut short going into the second round. A lot of times especially when you’re developing technique you need that whole round, five rounds, three rounds,the longer it goes the more experience you get and the better you are so this time we’re going to actually show everybody by keeping it you know as long as possible, we’re not going to try to kill him too early. And this time, we’re not going to let him go, we’re going to break something. Either break him or knock out, but we’re not going to do any judges’ decision.”

Hahn also thinks that Mir’s experience as a fighter in UFC will pay dividends in the end. He backs Mir’s “Chaos Theory” technique of throwing so much at Lesnar that eventually the champion will get confused and make a mistake.

“I think Frank just needs to relax and not wait or not look for the knockout and just have fun out there and it will come, so as long as he has fun and relaxes you will see a really good fight because he’s prepared. He basically has an answer for every single situation and that’s what happens is when you don’t have an answer and you’re thinking and you’re double-guessing and you’re thinking, “Did I train enough?” or “Do I have an answer for this move?” That’s what Brock has to worry about because Brock has to get better at stand-up and he has to get better at ground and together and he can’t focus on one more than the other, so really Frank has a lot more you know chances of winning just because he’s been fighting for a long time and he’s got the disciplines of both stand-up and ground. Brock only has three fights, so you know how can you get that much knowledge? You can’t. Not that quick.”

Couture, who lost the UFC Heavyweight title to Lesnar, understands a thing or two about getting hammered with about 20 different punches on the ground in a brutal fashion. The former champion says that Mir may think his fight strategy will be easy to integrate into the fight, but that Mir may not end up getting the results that he wants.

“Well [Lesnar's] a great big guy, I just don’t know if that’s the right game plan, you know, to try and stay outside of a guy that long and big and pick at him because it doesn’t take many of those, I can attest to, to make your night short, so I think Mir I would think Mir would still try and find a way to get him on the ground and get him out of position and get him overaggressive as he has a tendency to do and find a way to submit him again, but it’ll be interesting. Obviously he’s got a lot of confidence in his stand-up after taking out Nogueira that way so it’ll be interesting to see how he approaches Lesnar. Lesnar’s going to be better, he’s gotten better each and every camp, he’s come through and that’s going to be no different this time. It’s going to be harder for Frank to do what he did last time.”

Couture does agree with Hahn’s sentiments that Lesnar has a lot of work to do in his stand-up game, but also thinks that Brock is a very fast study. Mir will test out Brock’s footwork and striking, for sure.

“Yeah, I think getting more comfortable and fluid on his feet, using the athletic ability that he has and being more damaging there, posing more of a threat in the stand-up position, not just kind of rushing and trying to smother or take a guy down and realizing that he has a lot of horsepower, he has a lot of length, those are things that if are refined that he can really use to his advantage. When [Lesnar] gets on his ground, making his shots count, he has a tendency to get real excited and hammer fist and if he loaded up and just dropped one good hard shot there I mean with that body weight and that fist it’s going to be something, so, making those shots count that’s going to keep him a little more conservative in position harder to move and you know learning just trap and try to pummel on the ground to create those opportunities to land those one or two or three big shots rather than twenty of those hammer fists.

“There’s definitely more to him than that (power). His foundation is similar to mine in that that collegiate wrestling background which is a very technical sport and he has that mindset, he’s applied that mindset to MMA, and he just to continue to ratchet it up each and every time out and we’re going to see a better Brock Lesnar this time.”

The winner of the Couture/Nogueira eliminator fight coming up will likely get a title shot against the winner of Mir/Lesnar. Who does Randy want to face if he can get past Nogueira?

“Well, I think both guys are amazing fighters that pose different problems obviously, so I don’t really care one way or another with that regard. I think that I’m leaning towards Lesnar you know beating Mir this time, it’s always harder for the guy who won the first one to make adjustments and come back and do something different to win again. It’s easier for the guy that lost to rationalize and say, “Well, I screwed up here, I screwed up there, I can change that, I can change this” and go in and be more effective the second time.”

What’s interesting about that statement is that the record for fighters in the UFC who win the first fight in an encounter against a certain opponent are about 70% likely to win the re-match.

Hahn, who is a former karate champion and Muay Thai specialist, says that he is as excited to be Mir’s trainer as he would be if he was actually fighting.

“I think you know for me since I fought before I always thought “what happens when I stop fighting?” but it feels the same way. I feel nervous, I feel you know anxious for him so it’s the same thing, a lot of stress but you know it’s more it’s up to him when the gate closes, I’m not the one inside there, he is.”

What is the biggest challenging in preparing Mir for such a tough opponent like Lesnar who is a mountain of a man?

“I’d say the fact that sometimes people get injured trying to make sure we get the training partners we need so for Frank I make sure he gets wrestlers that are from the Olympics or Olympic-level, Muay Thai kickboxers that are pro-level you know K-1 hopefully level, getting jiu-jitsu guys that are big and that are good, basically if I can put Frank in a situation where he’s always losing, he’ll win. It’s hard because a lot of guys don’t want to be in a losing situation especially if they’re that famous, ‘Well, why? I’m the champ. Why should I be subjected to situations where it’s going to make me look bad?’ That’s the biggest thing, people don’t want to do that. If you can, you will go a lot farther.”

If Frank Mir can beat Brock Lesnar at UFC 100, it will be Hahn’s best achievement as a trainer. There’s no substitute for training someone to become a world champion in their respective sport.

“Basically for me, I was a world champion so the biggest thing is to be able to create a world champion, right? It’s one to become one but to build one is another thing, so that’s another goal in my life. When I turned 30 I had one goal that’s to make something famous for myself and that was winning the world title. Now before I make 40, which is 2 years away, I got to produce a champion and then you know that kind of completes my whole world because as a trainer if you didn’t produce a champion then who are you, you know what I mean? And if then you were also a world champion it even puts you up there even more, so I’ve experienced what it takes to become a world champion so when I produce one you know it’s easier, I can tell him, ‘I did this, that’s why you need to do it,’ whereas a lot of trainers maybe they didn’t even fight, how can you tell them to do it if you’ve never even fought?

If Mir loses at UFC 100 to Lesnar, Hahn thinks that a rubber match is almost a certainty, perhaps in 2010.

What if he loses? “If he loses, start again. Yeah because you know he’s still in his prime, you know, and if he does lose it’s one and one, right? They still got to let them fight again because you’re letting Brock fight again and he lost to Frank, so, I don’t think he’ll lose but if he does he will still have another chance.”