The problems Josh Barnett is now facing in his career
Published by Zach Arnold on July 26th, 2009 in Current Events

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It’s fair to say that this has been the worst week in the history of Josh Barnett’s professional life. He failed a random California State Athletic Commission drug test for drostanolone, an anabolic steroid more thought of in circles to cut weight while retaining strength as opposed to, well, other anabolic steroids. The fact that we are even discussing this topic is a bad deal for Barnett. Going into his August 1st fight against Fedor, Barnett already had a size advantage. But did he have too much of a size advantage? If you are a heavyweight fighter and you are taking a drug like drostanolone, what you are looking to do is to shed weight while maintaining your strength. If the heavyweight limit is 265 pounds, why would you need to take a drug like this? No matter what Josh did or did not take, going into the Fedor fight he was always going to slower and bigger than the Russian. So, the next question you have to ask yourself is the following: If Barnett did in fact take drostanolone, was he having problems getting down in weight to the point that he was concerned that he couldn’t make it within the heavyweight limit of 265? If so, that’s an alarming sign to think about.

Josh Barnett has lost a lot of things this week in his MMA career. However, Keith Kizer of the Nevada State Athletic Commission also lost some face this week, too. Nevada was the first state to implement out-of-competition drug testing. Yet, reportedly the commission has only used this testing on a limited basis with UFC fighters. Whether the excuse is budgetary concerns or a lack of resources, the fact is that Nevada is not using out-of-competition 100% of the time. That, in and of itself, is sad. What’s even sadder is that a nearly-bankrupt state like California, which doesn’t have a ton of resources, just started out-of-competition drug testing in a nasty financial climate. If they can do it, why can’t Nevada? To top it all off, California’s first random test was… Josh Barnett, and they claim they caught him. Nevada looks bad right now. Real bad.

Now, for the (partially) good news for Barnett. His drug test failure actually revealed a loophole in the drug testing process. If you are not licensed at the time you take a test and fail it, you can’t get suspended for it. You better believe that many fighters have caught onto this aspect of the regulations process this week. I’m not sure this was the kind of good news Josh was hoping for, but his situation has shown fighters a way to minimize the damage if they get caught cheating.

Unfortunately for Josh, there’s nothing minimal about what he lost this week given his current circumstances.

1. He lost a lot of money for the Fedor fight and a chance to solidify himself as the top heavyweight fighter in MMA.

Ignoring everything else Barnett lost this week with the failed drug test, this right here is so huge that it’s hard to even recover from it. This fight was probably one of, if not, the highest-paying fights Josh was ever going to get in his life. Whether you believe the figure is $300,000 or $500,000, that’s a lot of money to make for one fight. He’s not going to get that money anywhere else – not in Japan and not in UFC. So, the failed drug test alone cost Barnett a significant amount of money. Second, Barnett lost his chance to face Fedor on American soil under unified rules to fight him… and maybe even win the fight. I don’t care if you thought the chances of Barnett winning this fight were 5% or 10%, he still had a chance to make history and cement his legacy.

What Barnett has to hope for is that there is still interest in Japan to book this fight on New Year’s Eve. Shin’ya Aoki publicly commented and said he would be interested in the fight happening in Japan. Barnett’s a Sengoku fighter, but I’m sure that if DREAM and Sengoku worked together that you could do an interpromotional match. It wouldn’t necessarily be under unified rules, however, and somehow I don’t think Josh would get the same amount of money offered to him in Japan as he would by Affliction.

2. Casual fans will think that Barnett’s drug suspension brought down Affliction for good.

This is a big image problem Josh is facing right now. On Friday night when ESPN reported that Affliction canceled their August 1st show, the network said that the show was canceled after Tom Atencio couldn’t find an opponent for Fedor after Barnett failed his drug test. Well, sure he could have — he had Vitor Belfort ready to go. Furthermore, Atencio in his press release did not say that he was going to reach an agreement with UFC. Instead, we had to find out all the details about the off-on, on-again negotiations between Affliction and UFC from various MMA news outlets. So, in the end, Barnett was left out to dry as the poster child for why the third Affliction show was canceled and people will make the causal connection that Barnett’s failed drug test was the death of Affliction when it very clear that the promotion had financial problems to begin with.

It doesn’t mean Barnett deserves sympathy here, but the way Affliction got the hell out of the business right after Josh failed his drug test was rather amusing.

3. Barnett’s image in Japan is that of a steroid fighter and he will have to deal with a culture that still values shame.

On a personal level, this is the most damaging blow for Josh Barnett. Various major newspaper outlets like Nikkan Sports and Daily Sports reported Josh’s failed drug test suspension story straight up. No sugar-coating, no softening the blow, they told the facts and that was that. Now the image that fans have of Barnett is that he’s a steroid user and that his drug test suspension brought down Affliction. I had one MMA writer in Japan tell me that Josh will have to address the issues that “he brought shame” to himself because he cost Affliction fighters paychecks for the Anaheim show and that he brought shame on himself for being caught for using drugs.

Never mind the fact that drug testing is toothless in Japan and never mind the fact that the Japanese fans are clueless about the realities of the fight business, the fact is that Josh Barnett has to deal with a fan base that still values shame as a cultural notion. In America, shame is all but thrown out the window. In Japan? This is the same country where Shukan Gendai’s negative campaign against PRIDE destroyed the company and put pressure on Fuji TV to pull the plug on an MMA promotion that was drawing nearly 20% TV ratings. Barnett lived through that experience.

On August 9th in Tokyo at Ariake Colosseum, Barnett will be wrestling on Antonio Inoki’s show. There will be a lot of media writers in attendance and Barnett’s going to be facing the heat. Barnett can’t get away with issuing a ‘no comment’ because that will make it look like he’s hiding something or trying to run away from the heat. If he declares his innocence 100%, he’s still going to have to answer questions about how the Affliction fighters lost paychecks because of what happened. And if Barnett comes out and admits that he made a mistake and did in fact use steroids and apologizes to the Japanese fans, it might help his situation out but it would destroy his appeal in California (if he goes through with it). Things are about to get very rough for Josh and he needs to get as much advice as he possibly can on how to handle the PR situation, and by advice I don’t mean simply his normal ‘inner circle’ of advisors, either.

4. Limited job opportunities and little leverage.

This is the big long-term problem Josh Barnett is facing. If he ever decides to eat crow and go to UFC, he’s going to have to take a deal where he may get $75,000 to show and $75,000 to win. He will never get a deal like the one he got in PRIDE or with Affliction, never. Plus, he would have no leverage in working with Dana White. He would have to do whatever Dana told him to do. That’s not really in Josh’s DNA.

As far as Japanese options are concerned, Sengoku is a mess right now. They simply are having trouble drawing fans to shows right now. Unless Barnett can position himself as an anchor to Satoshi Ishii, he’s running out of big-money options there very quickly. If Barnett tries his hand at DREAM, he could certainly fight the Alistair Overeems of the world there, but he won’t make the same amount of money that he used to. As far as the wrestling circuit goes, New Japan is not interested in using him. NOAH has no television deal. IGF runs a few shows a year but it’s not a steady paycheck at all for him. Pancrase is all but non-existent these days.

When you look at the avalanche of things coming towards Josh Barnett’s way right now, he is really pigeon-holed as far as his career is concerned. The failed drug test didn’t end his career, but it certainly took away a lot of options from him and took a bunch of money off the table. He doesn’t have a lot of TV exposure in America or Japan for that matter right now. He also doesn’t have an experienced professional based in Japan who can manage his image and manage his career. Barnett’s always managed his career in a certain way, but now things have changed and his thought process on how his career is managed needs to be dramatically altered if he wants to have one more strong run in the fight business as an elite fighter. He can’t afford any more head-scratching business decisions and head-scratching behavioral moments. The stakes are very high for him right now and he can’t afford any more mistakes or mishaps.