UFC 104 Preview: The Karate Kid, Part UFC
Published by Jim Genia on October 21st, 2009 in Current Events

 Print |  Email |  RSS

Karate’s greatest warrior returns at Saturday night’s UFC 104, with 205-pound champ Lyoto Machida channeling the spirit of Daniel LaRusso to employ foot sweeps and Crane Techniques galore against fellow Brazilian Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. Yes, it promises to be a battle, chock full of katas, board-breaking and frequent bowing to a framed photo of Mr. Miyagi. Okay, not really. While light-heavyweight king Machida may be the most successful karate-based striker to ever grace the sport of MMA, the truth is his unorthodox stand-up and impeccable timing are only part of the package. Like his opponent Shogun, “The Dragon” is a jiu-jitsu black belt capable of ending matters on the ground – although, given the challenger’s kickboxing strengths and successes in Pride destroying the likes of Quinton Jackson, Alistair Overeem and Ricardo Arona, it’s doubtful there’ll be much grappling in the UFC 104 main event. No, for this, the latest installment of the timeless “The Karate Kid” series, karate and Muay Thai are going to wage war. And the sharper, crisper, deadlier Machida is most likely going to win.

Heavyweight Ben Rothwell employs very little karate in his bouts, instead relying on the reach his 6’5” frame provides him to stick fists in foes faces. Co-main event opponent Cain Velasquez, a storied All-American wrestler and American Kickboxing Academy exponent, isn’t big on karate either, choosing instead to shoot for takedowns and unleash some potent ground-and-pound. Consequently, their UFC 104 clash doesn’t fit in at all with the event’s Karate Kid motif – but it fits in nicely with the organization’s scheme of finding suitable opponents for champ Brock Lesnar. As the veteran Rothwell showed during his tenure with the now-defunct IFL, he’s one bad mutha, made all the more bad from his years training with the Miletich camp. Velasquez, meanwhile, has shown us that he’s vulnerable to punches when closing the distance (see Velasquez vs. Cheick Kongo, which had Kongo landing leather repeatedly before Velasquez could get him down). Expect the comparatively-inexperienced Velasquez to get the takedown early, but in later rounds he’s going to make a mistake, and Rothwell is good enough to turn that mistake into a TKO.

Josh Neer, a Miletich-trained lightweight who’s well-rounded like the day is long, is set to face off against Gleison Tibau, another of American Top Team’s cookie-cutter fighters. Both men are coming off losses – Neer to Kurt Pellegrino, who managed to get him down, hold him there and score points throughout, and Tibau to Melvin Guillard, who simply out-worked him – so it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that both men want (and likely need) a win here. The question then remains: who wants it more? Based on how angry he was at losing to Pellegrino, it’s safe to say Neer does, and with his edge in striking and lack of fear of winding up on his back, he’s going to nail Tibau with something and then finish him.

Joe Stevenson is good at takedowns but bad at absorbing punishment on the feet. Spencer Fisher is bad at avoiding takedowns but really good at delivering punishment on the feet. What will that translate into at UFC 104? Either “Big Daddy” is going to execute the most boring lay-and-pray ever or “The King” is going to ding Stevenson and win by either TKO or cut.

A similar story awaits in the Anthony Johnson/Yoshiyuki Yoshida pairing, with Johnson playing the role of “powerful striker who sucks on the ground” and Yoshida playing the role of “expert ground fighter who sucks on the feet”. And unless Yoshida has somehow turned his chin into granite, “Rumble” is going to starch him.