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By Zach Arnold

After Affliction’s debut event on July 19th at the Honda Center in Anaheim, the discussion revolved around who would become the next challenger to Fedor Emelianenko, the PRIDE Heavyweight champion. Would it be Josh Barnett, the toughest opponent available that Fedor hasn’t fought yet? What about Randy Couture? It would draw big numbers at the box office, but Couture’s stuck in court against Zuffa LLC in both Nevada and Texas.

Without Barnett and Couture, the only viable challenge for Affliction to book against Fedor for their October event in Las Vegas is Andrei Arlovski. Arlovski is charismatic, well-known in the States, a credible heavyweight, and can help at the box office. A win over Arlovski means something to your casual MMA fan in America, just like Fedor’s dominating win over Tim Sylvia carried significant weight in the eyes of many.

Sure, if you are in Andrei Arlovski’s camp right now, you have second thoughts about whether or not you should accept an October booking against Fedor. After all, the likely outcome of such a fight is that Arlovski will get destroyed. However, give him some more training time with Freddie Roach to work on his striking ability and he might develop a puncher’s chance against the Russian.

Money talks and bull$&*! walks, which is why we’re about to see a babyface Russian monster against a babyface Belarussian caveman fight in the main event of Affliction’s second show.

In terms of fighting styles, we know that Fedor will push the pace very quickly against Arlovski. His only chance is to knock the Russian out and that simply hasn’t happened yet. If the idea of booking Fedor vs. Arlovski is to attract sharks to come to Las Vegas to bet money on the fight, forget about it. The odds/lines will be astronomically in favor of the Russian winning the fight. If you are booking a fight for Las Vegas to attract high-stakes gamblers, then the fight you want to book is Fedor vs. Barnett because it will be a competitive bout. What would the lines be for Arlovski as an underdog against Fedor? You would have to think that the lines would start out at +550 or greater. Additionally, you have to consider how much action you think anyone would put on Arlovski to pull off the upset win. Not much.

So, what would be the key to marketing a match between Fedor and Arlovski to the general public? It would be yet another PRIDE Heavyweight champion vs. ex-UFC Heavyweight champion match. Arlovski has a highlight reel of knockouts, but that footage is unfortunately owned by Zuffa. Certainly, the beating that Arlovski gave to Ben Rothwell is good enough video tape to make a few ads out of. The real test as to whether or not Affliction can get MMA fans to believe that Arlovski has a chance of winning the fight will involve boxing trainer Freddie Roach.

Yes, that Freddie Roach. The man who thought that Arlovski’s boxing skills made all the difference in the world against Rothwell and didn’t care all that much about the ground game. If Roach can teach Arlovski some new boxing tricks quickly and make his student’s striking game dangerous enough that people might give Arlovski a puncher’s chance of beating Fedor, then perhaps your casual MMA fan will take Arlovski seriously going into the fight.

The dual-edged sword that Affliction is now working with revolves around Fedor. When you have the greatest fighter in the world, you have to work diligently to build challengers that the public is willing to accept as challengers that might actually knock off the champion. Fedor is such a dominant heavyweight fighter that the mystique and aura surrounding him is a key component of drawing money with him on top. The downside is that if nobody believes he can be stopped, then suddenly there’s no point in having him as your ‘ace’ because fans can’t suspend reality and belief that someone like an Andrei Arlovski can beat him. Given the predicament that Affliction is in right now to build their MMA promotion from the ground-up, Fedor vs. Arlovski is the best main event they can market right now. The likely outcome would involve yet another ex-UFC Heavyweight champion going down in flames on Dana White’s home turf of Las Vegas.

This, of course, would make Bob Arum very happy. Mr. Arum is no fan of Dana White. Recently, the venerable boxing promoter was quoted by the inimitable Steve Cofield of Yahoo Sports as saying, “Affliction is on the warpath. One of the things they’ve been successful at, UFC spends a lot on promotion because they don’t pay their athletes. Their contracts will be running out and Affliction is going to get all the better fighters. If it’s a bet between UFC and Affliction, I’m betting on Affliction…How do you like that Dana!”

Given that UFC has so many enemies right now in the fight business, would some of these enemies be willing to work together to pool their resources to make a push against Zuffa? The answer is, most definitely, yes. Would Top Rank Promotions be willing to work with Affliction to help out with the production for an MMA show in Las Vegas? Would Mark Cuban and other promotions such as Elite XC be interested in working something out with Affliction? You would certainly think so.

The bankroll of Affliction, combined with the many free agents and enemies of UFC in the MMA marketplace, has created a situation where fights like Fedor vs. Arlovski are suddenly marketable in the States. Admit it – you’re excited to see Affliction put on big shows in the future with fighters that you will never see compete in UFC’s cage again. The t-shirt guy is banking on your support and so far, his calculation may very well be on target.